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2021-07
Market Status and Development Prospects of China's New Energy Vehicle Industry in 2021
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1. China's new energy vehicle industry is developing rapidly, but still faces technological difficulties
There are three main reasons why China is promoting the development of new energy vehicles: as a non renewable resource, oil has always been in a relatively tight state, and China's dependence on oil is high. The rise of new energy vehicles can to some extent alleviate China's large demand for oil; For the purpose of protecting the environment, a large amount of automobile exhaust is an important source of environmental pollution, and energy conservation and emission reduction are also measures to protect the environment; Developed countries in the automotive industry are all developing new energy vehicles, and China cannot fall behind. We must take advantage of this trend of new energy development to achieve overtaking and become a strong automotive nation.
The development of new energy vehicles in China is mainly driven by policies, and the country has always been proactive, proactive, and systematic in promoting the development of new energy vehicles. In order to promote new energy vehicles, China has established a comprehensive policy system for promotion. However, overall, fiscal subsidies are not a long-term solution for the development of China's new energy vehicle industry. In order to avoid a shortage of new energy vehicles, a dual credit policy was implemented in September 2017, which imposes strict requirements on the fuel consumption level and new energy vehicle production of car companies.
In addition, on December 31, 2020, four ministries including the Ministry of Finance and the Ministry of Industry and Information Technology issued a notice on further improving the financial subsidy policy for the promotion and application of new energy vehicles, stating that in 2021, the subsidy standard for new energy vehicles will be reduced by 20% on the basis of 2020;
In order to promote the electrification of vehicles in public transportation and other fields, the subsidy standards for vehicles that meet the requirements in urban public transportation, road passenger transportation, rental (including ride hailing), environmental sanitation, urban logistics and distribution, postal and express delivery, civil aviation airports, and government offices will be reduced by 10% on the basis of 2020. To accelerate the transformation and upgrading of the public transportation industry, local governments can continue to provide purchase subsidies for new energy buses.
1) Rapid growth in production and sales of new energy vehicles in China
According to data from the China Association of Automobile Manufacturers, the production and sales of new energy vehicles reached 1.242 million and 1.206 million units respectively in 2019, a year-on-year decrease of 2.3% and 4.0%, respectively. As of the end of 2020, the cumulative production and sales of new energy vehicles in China have reached 1.366 million and 1.367 million respectively, with a cumulative increase of 7.5% and 10.9%, respectively. The growth rate has turned from negative to positive compared to the previous year.
In 2019, the production of pure electric vehicles reached 1.02 million units, a year-on-year increase of 3.4%, and sales reached 972000 units, a year-on-year decrease of 1.2%; The production and sales of plug-in hybrid electric vehicles reached 220000 and 232000 units respectively, a year-on-year decrease of 22.5% and 14.5%, respectively; The production and sales of fuel cell vehicles reached 2833 and 2737 units respectively, with year-on-year growth of 85.5% and 79.2%, respectively.
As of 2020, the production and sales of pure electric vehicles have reached 1.105 million and 1.115 million respectively, accounting for 80.89% and 81.57% of the total; The production and sales of plug-in hybrid electric vehicles reached 260000 and 251000 respectively, accounting for 19.03% and 18.36% of the total, respectively; The production and sales of fuel cell vehicles have both reached 1000 units, accounting for less than 0.1% of the total.
2) In recent years, the delivery volume of major new energy vehicle manufacturers has rapidly increased
In 2020, Xiaopeng Motors delivered a total of 27041 units, a year-on-year increase of 112%. In terms of specific vehicle models, among the 5700 units delivered in December, the monthly delivery volume of Xiaopeng P7 was 3691 units, and the monthly delivery volume of Xiaopeng G3 was 2009 units, both setting new records for delivery volume in 2020.
It is worth mentioning that Xiaopeng Motors' cumulative total delivery volume in the fourth quarter was 12964 units, exceeding the company's target of delivering 10000 units in the fourth quarter. It is worth mentioning that Xiaopeng Supercharging recently added 34 cities with lifelong free charging services, including Anyang and Dali Bai Autonomous Prefecture.
Since Beijing became the first city to offer lifetime free charging services for Xiaopeng car owners on September 26th, the number of cities offering lifetime free charging services for Xiaopeng Supercharging has expanded to 100, with 670 supercharging stations nationwide.
In 2020, NIO delivered a total of 43728 units, a year-on-year increase of 112.6%. Based on the current products sold, NIO has three products on sale. In December 2020, 2009 ES8 units were delivered, setting a new high in delivery volume since its launch. 2493 ES6 and 2505 EC6 units were delivered respectively.
In addition to a significant increase in delivery volume, NIO has also increased its layout in offline service experience. In 2020, it built 49 new battery swapping stations and 80 supercharging stations, and has accumulated 172 battery swapping stations and 100 supercharging stations in China.
At the same time, the navigation assistance function NOP based on high-precision maps, 100kWh long endurance battery, NIO battery rental service BaaS, and flexible battery upgrade plan have been launched.
From January to November 2020, Geely delivered 60971 units of its new energy vehicle series. In mid November 2020, Geely delivered 6829 new energy and electrified vehicles. In terms of exports, Geely Group's export volume in November 2020 more than doubled year-on-year to 11769 units.
3) The export volume of new energy vehicles in China is showing an upward trend year by year
According to Chinese customs statistics, the export scale of new energy vehicles in China has shown a year-on-year upward trend from 2017 to 2019. In 2019, 254000 new energy vehicles were exported, a year-on-year increase of 72.8%. In the first half of 2020, China exported 36900 new energy vehicles, a year-on-year increase of 140.7%; The export value was 1.102 billion US dollars, a year-on-year increase of 271.6%. Among them, the export of pure electric vehicles was 21500 units, an increase of 136%; The export value was 363 million US dollars, a year-on-year increase of 1122.9%.
2. Forecast for the development prospects of China's new energy vehicle industry: Sales volume will reach around 2.8 million vehicles by 2026
On November 2, 2020, the State Council issued the "Development Plan for the New Energy Vehicle Industry (2021-2035)"; The Plan points out that by 2025, the competitiveness of China's new energy vehicle market will be significantly enhanced, and key technological breakthroughs will be made in the three major fields of electricity.
The average power consumption of new pure electric passenger vehicles dropped to 12.0 kWh/100 km, and the newly sold new energy vehicles reached about 20% of the total sales of new vehicles. Highly autonomous vehicles achieved commercial application in limited areas and specific scenarios, and the convenience of charging and changing services was significantly improved. Strive to achieve the international advanced level of core technology for new energy vehicles in China by 2035.
Pure electric vehicles have become the mainstream of newly sold vehicles. Vehicles in the public sector have been fully electrified. Fuel cell vehicles have achieved commercial application. Highly autonomous vehicles have achieved large-scale application. The charging and changing service network is convenient and efficient. The construction of the hydrogen fuel supply system has been steadily advancing.
Looking ahead to the next 15 years, the new energy vehicle industry remains the trend of future development. Among them, technological innovation is a difficult obstacle that the new energy vehicle industry must overcome, such as power batteries, operating systems, charging piles, etc. in the pure electric field; The construction of low-cost hydrogen energy systems in the field of hydrogen energy, mainly focusing on hydrogen production, storage, and transportation. Therefore, it is predicted that the sales volume of new energy vehicles in China will reach around 2.8 million units by 2026.
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